The Price Of Industrial Products Is Likely To Continue The Year-on-year Increase And Fall

Since 2022, the PPI of my country's industrial producer prices has continued the trend of falling year-on-year growth since the fourth quarter of 2021. The main reason is that China has increased efforts to ensure supply and stabilize prices, especially the increase in the production of energy-related products to promote price stability. On March 15, the State Council Information Office held a press conference. Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics and director of the National Economic Comprehensive Statistics Department, said that in the next stage, in the face of difficult conditions, my country will continue to do a good job in commodity protection. Supply and stabilize prices, take multiple measures to increase market supply, meet production and living needs, reduce production costs of enterprises, especially the costs of mid- and downstream industries, improve business conditions, and promote stable economic development.

Judging from the main characteristics of my country's industrial producer ex-factory price PPI since 2022: First, the year-on-year increase in coal prices is falling. Affected by the policy of increasing coal production and ensuring supply, coal production grew rapidly and prices fell. In February, the ex-factory price of coal mining and washing industry rose by 45.4% year-on-year. Although it was still at a high level, it fell month-on-month, 5.9 percentage points lower than that in January.

Second, the price increase of oil and non-ferrous metals has expanded. Affected by the rise in international energy and non-ferrous metal prices, the ex-factory price of oil and natural gas extraction industry rose by 41.9% in February, an increase of 3.7 percentage points from January, and the ex-factory price of non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 20.4%, an increase of 0.6% percent.

Third, the prices of living materials have generally increased steadily. Although the prices of upstream means of production have changed, the price of downstream means of living has risen steadily. The supply in my country's domestic market, especially the supply of consumer goods, is relatively sufficient. In February, the price of living means rose by 0.9% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from January.

Fu Linghui believes that although the PPI is still at a high level in general, the increase is falling. At present, it is true that the price increases in the upstream industry are relatively high, which has caused certain pressure on the production and operation of the middle and downstream industries, and restricted the recovery of the economy to a certain extent. From the perspective of the trend, although there are uncertainties, in general, it is more likely that the price of industrial products will continue to rise and fall year-on-year. On the one hand, the international environment is complex and severe. In particular, the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict and geopolitical tension have led to high fluctuations in international commodity prices, which cannot be ignored on the importation of domestic production. On the other hand, domestic measures to ensure supply and stabilize prices will continue to be effective, and the production and supply of upstream industries will continue to increase, which is conducive to price stabilization.